Private-equity firms and hedge funds spy opportunity. The buyout barons got good news this week, when the Fed relaxed its rules on their ownership of banks. These investors are also going after the investment banks’ “talent”. Hedge funds will be particularly keen to get their hands on cutting-edge risk-takers who fret that new regulation will clip their wings.
私募股权公司和对冲基金正在伺机以动。它们本周得到个好消息,美联储放松了这些收购巨头对银行控股的限制。这些投资者正在追逐投行的”人才”。对冲基金将会对那些担心自己被新规定束缚手脚的精英冒险家们(译者注:投行的人才)表现的格外热情。
Power may shift in two other directions: abroad and, to a lesser extent, to boutique investment banks. Mitsubishi is not the only foreign bank making a move. After a brief wrangle in the bankruptcy courts, Britain’s Barclays has taken over Lehman’s American operations.
权力正在两极分化:一是朝向海外,国际化方向聚集,另一个则是朝向小型专业投行聚集。三菱并不是唯一一个行动的外资银行。在破产法庭上简单争执之后,英国的巴克莱银行收购了雷曼美国的运营部门。
But all is not lost for the former investment banks. For one thing, they may not have to cut leverage by as much as feared. Though their overall leverage ratios are high, their risk-adjusted capital ratios under the Basel 2 rules are stronger than those of most commercial banks.
但是对于原来投行来说并不是所有都失去了。至少,他们不用减掉杠杆像原来担心的那么多。尽管它们的全面杠杆比率很高,但在巴塞尔2协议下,他们的风险调节资本比率比绝大多数商业银行都要好。
Moreover, there are some advantages to becoming a bank now. Dozens of regional lenders are expected to fail in the coming months. Goldman and Morgan should thus be able to amass deposits on the cheap, and without the headaches that would accompany a merger with a big commercial bank. As two of the sharpest distressed-debt investors, they will also be looking to pick up assets from the government’s giant loan-buying entity when it gets going.
此外,现在变为银行还有一些优势。许多地区性商业银行在近期会倒闭。因此,高盛和摩根斯坦利就可以吸收大量便宜的存款,而不必头痛要与一家大型商业银行合并的事情了。作为两家债券严重受损的投资者,它们也同样希望在政府巨大的贷款购买实体成立后,能够回笼些资产。
Given the acute stress in money markets, however, the accent for the time being is more on survival than grabbing opportunities. Banks continue to treat each other with suspicion in interbank loan markets.
由于货币市场有着巨大的压力,现在市场的声音不是能否抓住机会而是能否保住性命了。从银行间拆借市场可以看出银行之间依然存在着巨大的疑虑。
Financial firms fear further fallout from the recent, potentially catastrophic run on money-market funds that prompted the government to step in with guarantees. “Prime” money funds, which are important buyers of corporate debt, remain under pressure and are pulling away from anything deemed risky. This is a big problem for banks, since money funds hold up to $1.3 trillion of their short-term debt. As the funds retreat, the banks will be forced to turn to longer-term (and more expensive) funding markets.
金融公司担心最近在货币市场基金上潜在的灾难会有更严重的辐射影响。这促使美国政府介入市场提供担保。重要的公司债券购买者,”首要”货币基金仍处于压力之下,而且不再涉及任何有风险的债券。这对银行来说是个大问题,因为货币基金只有它们1.3万亿美元的短期债券。随着这些基金的撤退,银行将被迫使用期限更长(且成本更高)的筹资手段。