The credit crunch
信贷危机
Saving the system 拯救系统
Oct 9th 2008
From The Economist print edition
At last a glimmer of hope, but more boldness is needed to avert a global economic catastrophe
最后还有一线希望，为避免一场全球经济大灾难发生，还需要更大胆
CONFIDENCE is everything in finance. Until this week the politicians trying to tackle the credit crunch had done little to restore this essential ingredient. In America Congress dithered over the Bush administration’s $700 billion bail-out plan. In Europe governments have casually played beggar-my-neighbour politics, with countries launching deposit-guarantee schemes that destabilize banks elsewhere. This week, however, saw the first glimmers of a comprehensive global answer to the confidence gap.
对金融而言，信心就是全部。到本周为止，那些努力应对信贷危机的政要们在重建信心这一基本因素上作为甚少。在美国，国会犹豫不决地通过了布什政府7000亿美元的救市计划。在欧洲，政府间随意地玩着以邻为壑的政治游戏，各国纷纷对本国存款进行担保，没有顾及这样会动摇其他国家的银行。然而，还是让人们看到了第一束希望的曙光——全球将一致行动弥合信心裂缝。
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One clear sign was an unprecedented co-ordinated interest-rate cut on October 8th by the world’s main central banks, including the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and (officially a coincidence) the People’s Bank of China. Various continental European countries also set about recapitalizing their banks. But the most astounding developments were in America and Britain. The Fed doubled the amount of money available to banks on a short-term basis to $900 billion and announced that it would buy unsecured commercial paper directly from corporate borrowers. More surprisingly, Gordon Brown’s government, hitherto the ditherer par excellence, produced the first systemic plan for dealing with the crisis, not just providing capital and short-term loans to banks but also offering to guarantee new debt for up to three years.
一个明确的信号是10月8日全球主要央行空前地联合降息，其中包括美联储、欧洲央行、英国央行（英格兰银行）和中国央行（官方称是巧合）。许多欧洲大陆国 家也开始计划调整银行资本结构。但最令人惊骇的进展发生在美国和英国。美联储将对其短期内对银行提供的贷款规模扩大到9000亿美元，为原来的两倍，并宣布将直接从企业购买未担保的商业票据。更令人惊讶的是，迄今为止不知所措到极点的戈登?布朗政府采取了应对危机的第一个系统的计划，不仅向银行提供资本和 短期贷款，还对三年内到期的新债进行担保。
This is certainly progress, but it is not enough (see our extended finance section). The world’s finance ministers and central bankers, gathering in Washington, DC, this weekend for the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank, should deliver a simple message: more will be done. The world economy is plainly in a poor state, but it could get a lot worse. This is a time to put dogma and politics to one side and concentrate on pragmatic answers. That means more government intervention and co-operation in the short term than taxpayers, politicians or indeed free-market newspapers would normally like.
这的确是个进步，但还不够。本周末，国际货币基金组织（IMF）和世界银行的年会将在华盛顿召开，与会的世界各国财长和央行行长应该传递出一条简单的信 息：还会有更多行动。世界经济很显然处于糟糕的境地，但它很可能会更糟糕。现在正是将教条和政见搁到一旁，集中寻找实实在在的解决方式的时候。意即，就眼前来说政府干预和合作更重要，而不是报纸通常所青睐报道的纳税人、政客或是对自由市场的质疑（诸如此类问题）。
The patient writhing on the floor
在地板上痛苦挣扎的病人
If the panic that has choked the arteries of credit across the globe is not calmed soon, the danger will increase that output in rich economies will not simply shrink, but collapse. The same could happen in many emerging markets, especially those that rely on foreign capital. No country or industry would be spared from the equivalent of a global financial heart attack.
如果阻塞了全球信贷大动脉的恐慌不能迅速被平息，发达国家经济面临的风险将会增加，其产出不会只是收缩，而是崩溃。同样的危机还会发生在新兴市场，尤其是那些依赖外资的地区。没有一个国家或是产业会在全球金融心脏病发作时毫发无伤。
Stockmarkets are in a funk. But the main problem remains the credit markets. In the interbank market the prices banks pay to borrow money from each other are still near record highs. Meanwhile corporate borrowers have found it hard to issue commercial paper, as money-market funds have fled from all but the safest assets. In emerging markets bond spreads have soared and local currencies plunged. And whole countries have begun to get into trouble. The government of Iceland has had to nationalise two of its biggest banks and is frantically seeking a lifeline loan from Russia. Robert Zoellick, president of the World Bank, says there could be balance-of-payments problems in up to 30 developing countries.
各国股市都处在恐慌之中。但主要的问题仍在信贷市场。银行间拆借市场的利率继续创出新高。同时，随着货币市场资金纷纷逃离到最安全的资产上，企业借贷者发 现商业票据难以发行。新兴市场上，债券价格飞涨，本国货币贬值。有些国家已经开始陷入困境。冰岛政府被迫将其最大的两家银行国有化，并发狂似的向俄罗斯寻求续命贷款。世界银行主席罗伯特?佐立克表示，超过30个发展中国家将出现国际收支差额问题。
