One of the most encouraging bits of news is that the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index of house prices fell just 0.2% between April and May, the smallest fall in two years. Stable house prices would do wonders in reducing loan delinquencies, shoring up the banks’ balance-sheets and restoring the flow of credit.
最振奋人心的消息莫过于在4月到5月之间S&P/Case-Shiller （美国房价的领先衡量标准）20大城市房价指数仅下跌0.2%，是两年来最小幅度。稳定的房价对减少贷款拖欠会起到奇效，还可以支撑银行的资产负债表，起到恢复信贷流动的作用。
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Despite the good news, Mr Obama’s approval ratings, though high, are slipping. This, in part, is because the single most important economic benchmark, employment, remains grim, surprisingly so. Unemployment usually responds to economic growth in a relationship that was captured by an economist, Arthur Okun, in the 1960s. But it has risen more during this recession than most formulations of Okun’s Law would suggest.
消息有好有坏，奥巴马总统的支持率虽然仍然算高，但是正处于下滑状态，部分原因应归咎于并无好转的就业形势（就业是一项最为重要的单一经济基准），在经济好转的前提下这样的就业形势着实令人吃惊。经济学家亚瑟欧坤在十九世纪六十年代捕捉到，失业率与经济增长有关并通常随之做出反应。但是在此次衰退中，失业率的上升幅度远比欧坤法则的众多公式推导出的幅度大的多。
The publication last week of revisions to earlier GDP data explains some of the discrepancy. The revisions show that GDP has declined a cumulative 3.7% since the end of 2007, thus tying with 1957-58 as the deepest recession since the Depression (before these revisions, the decline was shown to be 2.5%). Even so, Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase, says that Okun’s Law would have predicted an unemployment rate of just 8.6% during the second quarter, whereas it actually averaged 9.3%.
上周公布的GDP修改数据可以解释一些不符之处。修改数据显示自2007年底GDP累计下降3.7%，可堪比发生在1957到58年自大萧条以来最严重的衰退（修改前的数据显示下降仅为2.5%）。即便如此，摩根大通的经济学家迈克尔▪费拉里说，按照欧坤法则预测第二季度的失业率应仅为8.6%，而实际的失业率达到平均9.3%。
