China has not only accomplished considerable fiscal and monetary easing. By allowing the yuan to rise by 18% in trade-weighted terms over the past 12 months, Beijing is passing on some of that boost to the rest of the world.
中国不仅完成了规模可观的财政和银根放松计划,还通过让人民币在过去12个月内升值18%(贸易加权考虑在内),部分促进了世界货币经济增长。
The real question is whether China’s stimulus is big enough? Exports fell by a sharper-than-expected 26% in the year to February and may yet drop further. The 12-month rate of growth in industrial production also dropped to only 3.8% in the first two months of 2009, and retail-sales growth slowed to 15%. But there are some tentative signs of a recovery in domestic demand. As well as the increases in investment and bank lending, car sales and electricity consumption have picked up. Mingchun Sun of Nomura reckons that the stimulus will be enough to achieve 8% growth this year. But the government has made it clear that if the economy remains feeble, it will supply another fiscal boost.
真正的问题是:中国的贸易刺激方案数量是否已经够大?到今年二月,年出口额下降远超预期,达26%,并且可能继续下挫。工业生产12个月增幅在09年头两个月已将至3.8%,零售业增长放缓至15%。但是仍然有一些国内需求复苏的暂时性指标。除了投资和银行贷款增长外,汽车销售和电力消费同样得到提振。野村证券的孙明春(音)认为,经济刺激方案能够实现8%的年度经济增长。但是政府已经明确表示,如果经济持续疲软,将会提供另外的财政提振方案。
Such injections may be able to drag growth back to 8% this year, but they cannot keep the economy running at this pace if global demand remains depressed. The need for China to shift the mix of growth from exports to consumption has become more urgent. Chinese officials are right to say that it will take years for higher public spending on health care and a social safety net to reduce household saving—all the more reason to speed up such policies. If not, even China’s fire could burn out.
这些注入或许可以把今年的经济增长拉回到8%,但如果全球需求持续悲观,增速便难以维持。对于中国而言,出口转内销的需要已经更加紧迫。中国官员正确地表示,将会用数年时间增量投资公共卫生和社保体系以降低居民存款,使得这些政策的加速实施更加名正言顺。否则,即便是中国的经济火焰也会被扑灭。