China’s stimulus
Got a light? 经济复苏已被点燃？
China’s big fiscal package may be starting to work
中国庞大的财政措施可能已经起效
“ONLY when all contribute their firewood can they build up a strong fire,” says a Chinese proverb. With the world economy in its worst crisis in 70 years, every country needs to do its bit to rekindle global demand. The American government, which plans to run a budget deficit of 12% of GDP this year, has called on its Group of 20 partners to do more. Is China one of the misers? Its budget, published last week, showed that it plans to run a deficit of only 3% of GDP. Was the 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) infrastructure package unveiled last November, worth 14% of GDP, a sham?
中国有句民谚：“众人拾柴火焰高。”随着世界经济陷入70年以来的最大危机，要重燃全球需求之火，各国都责无旁贷。美国政府计划今年运行占国内生产总值12%的财政赤字，并号召二十国集团的伙伴们作出更多行动。中国是其中的吝啬鬼吗？它在上周公布的预算显示，中国计划运行的财政赤字只占GDP的3%。难道去年十一月公布的4亿元用于基础设施建设的措施——相当于GDP的14%——仅仅是在忽悠？
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Beijing’s stimulus is smaller than the number announced last year, but it is still the biggest in the world. The fact that America is set to run a budget deficit four times the size of China’s as a share of GDP does not mean its demand stimulus is bigger; America started this year with a much bigger deficit. America’s deficit will increase by more than China’s this year, largely because it is suffering a deeper recession which will depress tax revenue. The correct measure of a fiscal stimulus is the change in the budget deficit adjusted for the impact of the economic cycle.
北京的刺激计划小于去年公布的数字，但这依然是世界范围内最大的经济刺激方案。尽管美国运行的财政赤字是中国的四倍，但这并不意味着它的需求性刺激计划就更大。美国从今年开始就保持了巨大的财政赤字，并且年内赤字增长将高于中国。这主要是因为美国遭受的经济衰退极大地减少了税收。财政刺激方案的正确措施应该是调整财政赤字以适应经济圈的冲击。
